With the 2024 presidential election just weeks away, some voters and political experts may be on the lookout for an October surprise: a sudden event or revelation that can turn the course of an election.
Whether it be exposed information or an international development, October surprises, coming before the month of a presidential election, have the ability to sway a very close election one way or another.
For example, in 2016, just a few weeks away from the presidential election, FBI Director James Comely exposed Hillary Clinton’s emails and her use of a private email server. However, these claims were proven to be just a false alarm.
“But the damage was done once that kind of news story was cycled to the front page, and that was enough to shift some voters in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan,” said William Colglazier, Advanced Placement United States History teacher.
Another example of an October surprise happened in 1980. Tensions with Iran were high at the time, and President Jimmy Carter had a hostage crisis on his hands: 52 American citizens were trapped in an Iranian prison. Carter’s party saw a last-minute October Surprise as their best chance for reelection, believing if Carter could manage to free the captives before election day, he may be able to turn the vote in his favor. Unfortunately for Carter, Iran kept the prisoners until after the elections and Ronald Reagan won the election in a landslide. The prisoners were not freed until January 20, 1981, the very day Carter left office.
In the 2024 Presidential election, there are two main candidates in the running: Kamala Harris, representing the Democratic party, and Donald Trump, representing the Republican party. With the current polarization in the world, however, some doubt the effectiveness of an October surprise in this election.
“I hope there’s really not [an October Surprise], but there certainly could be some sort of statement released by either candidate that could somehow hurt them in the polls,” said Colglazier. “What’s kind of interesting though is with the polarization that exists, the supporters of each candidate are probably not going to change their mind no matter what is said. So it’s possible the October surprise doesn’t really affect anything. But then again, the election is so close, maybe a marginal, small change could still be enough to tilt the election one way or the other.”
Some believe that voters have already made their decisions, and will stick with them no matter what happens.
“I’m not really expecting anything to happen that would possibly sway the vote at this moment. In the current political state, a lot has already happened,” said junior Julian Koop. “The Republicans are in a worse state, and are not looking like they’re going to win the election in the current political climate. And honestly, after such a big event with [Trump’s assassination attempt], I don’t think that there’s too much that could happen at the same level to possibly sway the world.”
Although both parties have strong voter bases, Trump’s supporters are known for their loyalty, rendering a potential October Surprise regarding Trump ineffective.
“It’s hard to convince a Trump supporter that Trump is not a great president because of how loyal they are,” said freshman Aditya Rathore. “For Kamala, the smallest thing can hurt [her], but that doesn’t work that way for Trump. [If Kamala said] ‘I changed the ballot and I cheated,’ that would make everyone want to vote for Trump, because that’s normal for him. The Trump supporters would be like, Kamala did the slightest thing, now vote for Trump.”
In the upcoming presidential election, the potential of an October Surprise introduces a layer of unpredictability. Although these events have influenced voters in the past, the circumstances of this year’s election could affect how impactful one is.
